A RETURN OF TEHERAN TO THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE ?

CDD 119 English

A RETURN OF TEHRAN TO THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE?

It will certainly have been noticed that for a few months now, it is in the Arabian Peninsula that most of the major international negotiations likely to engage the future of the planet have been located: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the Sultanate of Oman have seen many delegations of the protagonists of the most sensitive conflicts, Ukraine, the Middle East, Africa, the Iranian nuclear program, which can almost give the impression that the UN is no longer playing its role, It is not the least paradox of the current situation to see these autocratic regimes to the highest degree, not exempt from any support for international terrorism, set themselves up as peacemakers or at least try to play this role.

Trump in the Persian Gulf: good deals but strange political record

In this regard, it is hardly surprising that Trump's first official trip was devoted to these countries, where the petrodollar is a democratic virtue. It wasn't just the good family business that lured the U.S. president on this trip. One could thus formulate the hypothesis that he has thereby recognized a new point of planetary equilibrium, the one which, ignoring a multilateralism that he abhors, concludes or at least initiates bilateral "deals" likely to best serve his interests and the "greatness" of America. Who could have imagined that in the euphoria of such a trip, Trump would have gone to shake hands warmly with the new Syrian head of state, he whose head was put on a bounty in the United States less than a year ago? or that he would be close to signing a new nuclear agreement with Iran? In both cases, he humiliates his loyal ally, Netanyahu. Is this a way of once again covering his tracks, or a way of pushing the logic of business to the end without bothering with ideological or moral questions?

One cannot help but draw an astonishing political assessment of Trump's trip, beyond the miraculous contracts that may have been concluded there. In fact, Trump has fled the most serious current conflicts, between Ukraine and Russia, or between Israel and Palestine, but he has moved closer to Syria and Iran! Has the Great Satan put on his Santa Claus boots?

In any case, by de facto recognising the new Syrian regime and removing the sanctions imposed on it, as in his optimism over the Iran nuclear deal, Trump seems to have put Tehran back in the saddle. Involuntarily in his usual chaotic approach, or a new gesture towards Putin?

When the Sahel turns to the Taliban

It was in fact during this same period that at least two Sahel states, Niger and Burkina Faso, also turned to Tehran, with the similar objective of meeting the Taliban at the head of Afghanistan, a neighboring and above all politically close country, which also has good relations with Moscow.

By the end of April 2025, Niger had taken the lead by arranging for its ambassador in Tehran to officially meet with the ambassador of Afghanistan. Then, a few weeks later, Burkina Faso followed suit with the same type of meeting, also official, and still in Tehran... The reason given for these two diplomatic exchanges is the prospect of developing economic exchanges between Kabul and Niamey on the one hand, and Ouagadougou on the other. It is obviously difficult to believe such an official reason, especially when these meetings are highlighted in the media (see in particular Jeune Afrique of May 14, 2025). Admittedly, the very meagre economic flows between the Sahel and Afghanistan are undoubtedly destined to be developed within this confirmed Russian zone of influence. Both countries, like their neighbour Mali (all three of which have formed the Alliance of Sahel States or AES), are in a very precarious and inflationary situation. Even if Niger seems to have more "profitable" resources, such as oil and uranium (in which Iran has already expressed interest), it is nevertheless struggling with the Chinese company that exploits its oil, and has still not settled its dispute with Benin, which hinders the proper flow of its crude to the port of Cotonou. As for Burkina Faso, it is already strangled by its considerable debt, in the face of which it seems almost as helpless as in the face of an extension of the jihadist insurgency that is constantly nibbling away at its territory. Jeune Afrique also reports that, the day before the meeting in Tehran, the jihadists had made a show of force in the city of Dnibo of nearly 300,000 inhabitants and the surrounding localities, killing dozens of people and looting the police, the gendarmerie and their arsenals.

Towards negotiations with the jihadists?

No one is therefore unaware of the need for trade and new outlets or suppliers in the Sahel. The Russians and Chinese are already providing for most of it. But we can nevertheless make another hypothesis about the meaning of these interviews, a hypothesis that is undoubtedly more credible than the official fable of the development of economic cooperation. Afghanistan serves as a refuge and rear base for al-Qaeda. However, it is indeed gangs affiliated with this movement that the Sahel states are confronted with. They are not the only ones, but in particular the JNIM is one of the most powerful. In Burkina Faso, it even seems that it is the armed group most capable of inflicting severe damage on the army and that a very significant part of the country is now under its control. It is therefore difficult to imagine that the real purpose of these meetings was not the fight against al-Qaeda and the best way to emerge from it honourably, when everything indicates the fragility of the juntas in place, both in Niger and in Burkina Faso, as probably in Mali. Could Afghanistan be a good mediator, with the support of Iran? Iran, now a member of the BRICS and to which Moscow's support has never been lacking, at a time when the Sahel countries have themselves moved much closer to the Kremlin. Of course, the friends of our friends are never automatically our friends. But it is a safe bet that this was the real purpose of the Tehran meetings.

So it's a strange time this spring 2025. It shows an American president coming to the Middle East, pampered by the Persian Gulf states, willfully ignoring Israel and its destruction of Gaza, but almost putting a smile back on Tehran and its potential ally in Syria. And on the other hand, we can guess a Russian president who may be able to contribute to stabilising the situation in the Sahel. But in the contest of the most devious cynicism, it is still difficult to know whether Trump or Putin will win!

Jean-Paul de GAUDEMAR

June 1, 2025

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