COULD THE ELECTION OF KAMALA HARRIS CHANGE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE UNITED STATES?

We know Donald Trump's pitiful opinion of Africa and the inappropriate way in which he considers the corresponding countries, to say the least. Even if the character can change his mind at any time, it is likely that his eventual election would not help improve relations between the United States and the continent.

What would the opposite be if the chosen one was Kamala Harris? Admittedly, Joe Biden has only made a timid breakthrough towards Africa. But could its current vice-president go further and above all differently?

From Trump's abandonment to Biden's timid recovery

For obscure reasons, Donald Trump's term in office had corresponded to a lack of interest in Africa, even though he could have found good reasons to deploy his slogan of "Make America great again" by trying to develop all the markets that could benefit his country. It was not as if he wanted to leave the field open to the growing influence of the Russians on the military level and the Chinese on the economic level. Even the fate of AGOA, one of the most important tools at the service of the United States in its trade relationship with Africa (see my columns CDD 53 and 63 of December 3, 2023 and February 25, 2024 in "jpdegaudemar.substack.com") was no longer assured beyond 2025 and several large American companies had turned away from major projects and contracts,  often benefiting China. The arrival of Joe Biden has significantly changed the approach, without being convinced of a new American offensive towards the continent. But there was still a little more than a shudder, even if it was not until the very end of the presidential term that Joe Biden set foot on the continent. There was the United States/Africa Summit at the end of 2022, held in Washington in the presence of more than fifty heads of state and government – proof of the continued attractiveness of the summit – (see also my column CDD 15 of 29 January 2023 in "jpdegaudemar.substack.com"). The president did not lack promises, including that of going to Africa the following year, which he did not do, but a new impetus seemed to be given with the commitment of an investment of 55 billion dollars as well as various other more symbolic measures, including support for the AU's candidacy to become a full member of the G20. However, it will not have escaped the readers' notice of the proceedings and minutes of this meeting that most of the commitments made by the American president were accompanied by comments referring to the need for prior congressional approval. Proof if ever there was one of the little room for manoeuvre he had, in the face of Republicans as reluctant as their leader vis-à-vis Africa. There was also the AGOA Summit in Johannesburg in 2023 where the American side appeared to be eager to revitalize the corresponding treaty, wishing to extend its life, expand the scope of the corresponding markets while redefining certain rules of the game. At the same time, some actors distanced themselves from China to reconnect with the United States. This is the case of the DRC and its president Felix Tshisekedi, who apparently decided to contest the famous "contract of the century" signed by his predecessor with the Chinese. Finally, a few weeks before the 2024 election, Joe Biden, now freed from the duties of a campaign, put a quick foot in Angola to reaffirm the importance that Americans now attach to the "Lobito corridor" (see my column CDD 90 of October 27, 2024 in "jpdegaudemar.substack.com"). A timid but nevertheless effective recovery. Could the election of Kamala Harris accentuate it? 

Innovation and Memory of Slavery in Ghana

First, it should be remembered that Kamala Harris visited Africa in 2023, no doubt partly as a substitute for the president who had promised to make the trip, but perhaps also out of self-interest. His African American origins coming from his father, a Jamaican academic economist, as well as Indian-American from his mother, also an academic, his social fiber too, could only make him want to question the questions of the continent's development, even if this has not really appeared so far, as a presidential campaign necessarily focuses the candidates on the domestic scene. Kamala Harris also wants to give her opponent Donald Trump as little grip as possible on these campaign themes.

However, it was she who went to Africa in March 2023, to Ghana, the cradle of Pan-Africanism, and then to Tanzania and Zambia, three English-speaking countries (but also bilingual with Swahili for Tanzania, an official configuration rather rare in Africa) and located in two regions that are not only remote but significantly different. At least two of the three countries visited (Ghana and Zambia) have in common is that they are facing serious economic difficulties that have forced them into bankruptcy without an international bailout. A way perhaps to take, even in a few days, the widest dimension of the continent.

In Ghana, his remarks were quite classic, very focused on innovation, in a country that wants to be ambitious in this domaine.et was one of the few African countries to host a World Innovation Forum on its soil in 2018. Kamala touted "African ideas and innovations" that will "shape the future of the world" and pledged to "invest in African ingenuity and creativity"; More broadly, she took up Joe Biden's formula at the Africa-United States Summit, "going all out on Africa" in the form of "we are "all in" on Africa", and assuring that her country would be more than ever an "unwavering partner" for the continent. This is certainly enough to delight Nana Akufo-Addo, the Ghanaian president, especially since, in the face of his country's great economic difficulties, the American vice-president promised him a particularly welcome check for 139 million dollars! Another welcome news is that of $100 million in support to help the four coastal countries of the Gulf of Guinea (Côte d'Ivoire, Togo, Ghana and Benin) deal with jihadist incursions from the Sahel states. Finally, the icing on the cake is the promise to create a fund for African women endowed with one billion dollars, without any details, however.

But perhaps the most subjective mark of this trip concerns the visit made to the Cape Coast, one of those African memorial sites of the slave trade dedicated to "no return". In declaring that the history of "the horror of what happened here" must be learned because it guides "what we know about the history of those who survived in America," she was arguably referring as much to African history as to that of her own country and family, perhaps even more so than Barack Obama was able to do in his time.

Then came Tanzania before a final stop in Zambia.

In praise of democracy in Tanzania

Little time spent in this country, but the political meaning of Kamala Harris' visit was no less clear. Greeting a woman president, taking over from a president with dictatorial tendencies and wanting to re-establish a more democratic process, was the unambiguous message that the American vice-president, who is not yet a candidate for president but already in the "ticket" intended to oppose Donald Trump in 2024, wanted to send. Samia Suluhu Hassan is indeed completing the term of office of John Magufuli, who died before the end of his term, having made a reputation for opposing the slightest dissent by imprisoning or forcing exile any opponent. It is against these autocratic tendencies that she has therefore placed her presidency, not without risks regarding the future elections in 2025 compared to the former president's hardest supporters. And so, it is to support this "advance of democracy" that Kamala Harris went to Dar-el-Salaam, the United States wanting to set itself up through her as the banner of democracy. It is hard not to imagine while this time devoted to Africa was not entirely independent of the American election campaign.

Zambia's debt restructuring and China slap in the face

Kamala Harris' visit to Lusaka was not devoid of any emotional and memorial approach either, as her grandfather had worked there for several years. But the objective was different. It was not much different from Tanzania's since the vice president also wanted to welcome what Americans perceive as a return to democracy with President Hakainde Hichilema, elected since 2021 after being accused of treason by his predecessor. Zambia has been chosen to host, in parallel with Kamala Harris' visit, the Summit for Democracy previously called for by Joe Biden. We will judge later what Zambia promises on this point, even if the recent statement by President Hichilema gives cause for concern. "Democracy cannot be eaten," he told the Washington Post, "human rights can support the mind but not the body" to celebrate a technical progress that would rather deserve an authoritarian regime as in China. It is perhaps three blows to China that should be remembered from Kamala Harris' visit to Zambia. The first concerns the political regime that is most likely to support development. The second concerns the debt and its exorbitant burden, denounced by President Hichilema as the most powerful brake on his country's progress. In 2020, it caused Zambia to default on its maturities. The World Bank, the IMF and even Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, have investigated its fate so that a solution can be found, particularly within the framework of the G20, to restructure this debt. China, the main creditor of a debt estimated at more than $17 billion and 70% of its GDP, was the main target of Kamala Harris' remarks to call for this restructuring. As for the third and more implicit stabbing, it was aimed at one of the major projects for the Americans in this part of southern Africa, that of the so-called Lobito corridor intended to link this Angolan port in the west of the continent to the Tanzanian port of Dar-el-Salaam. With Europe and the United States now secured control of the railway line transporting copper, cobalt and other rare earth ores to Angola, the remaining issue is that of the complementary section to the east, from Angola to the DRC and then Zambia and Tanzania, a line being built by the Chinese. A major challenge for these two great powers is the control of these strategic mineral transports.

We can thus think that this trip to Africa, eighteen months before the presidential election, gives meaning to what the future African policy of the woman who is now the candidate of the Democratic camp could be. The memorial dimension augurs well for what could be not only a stronger dynamic in the interest in the continent but also what it implies for African American populations and even other minorities. The more political dimension of democracy advocacy appears not only as a pro domo plea but also as a political machine directed against China and Russia and the development model they embody. The Cold War is therefore never far away. The economic dimension of travel, although less apparent, nevertheless bears witness to this, in the strategic stakes of transporting the rich deposits of southern Africa.

It is as if, after the United States' rapprochement with the Congolese president of the DRC, Kamala Harris' visit to Tanzania and Zambia and finally Joe Biden's own trip to Angola, the world's leading power was taking its place to ensure, against China, the leadership of this part of southern Africa and its riches.

Jean-Paul de GAUDEMAR

November 3, 2024

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