RARE EARTHS

CDD 106 English

RARE EARTHS

Double return to the will to power? On the one hand, the astounding claim for new lands by two of the world's greatest powers, each the size of a continent, as if they were driven by the desire for additional territories!

But the will to power also involves the desire to monopolize "rare earths", essential ingredients for the industry of the future. The term "rare earths" is deliberately given an extensive meaning, by including all strategic metals such as lithium, tantalum and other minerals that are so feverishly sought.

Scarcity of land

Fans of Gabriel Garcia Marquez's "One Hundred Years of Solitude" will no doubt remember the moment in the book when the "Americans" arrive at the end of the world that is the pioneer village, the hero of the book, to create a banana city, surrounded by an electrified fence forbidden to the natives. This is obviously a metaphor for colonization, but we can guess to what extent this fantasy persists, even two or three generations after the great movements of decolonization and national liberation.

In one of my very first columns, I recalled (see my CDD 5 column of November 7, 2022) that in the not too distant future, little land and arable land on the planet will still be available, except for deserts, and if we try to continue to protect primary forests. Most of this land that is still available is located in Africa, but with the help of population growth, it is rapidly shrinking, even if the urban exodus is manifesting itself quickly and strongly. It is therefore no coincidence that the great powers are trying to build up territories of "strategic reserves". Especially if the latter contain interesting minerals in their subsoil or if they are located in geopolitically important areas. This is obviously the case of Donald Trump dreaming of invading Greenland, and proclaiming his bluster in the direction of Canada, Mexico or the Panama Canal; or of a Putin who has seized Crimea and the Donbass but continues to look at the countries of the former USSR. China's attitude is a little different, less spectacular but at least as effective if we think of the huge spaces that its public and private companies buy in Africa, often in exchange for their financial aid or services.

The will to power and political hegemony, then, but not only. China's hold on Katanga's cobalt is probably a post-colonial model that many powers, large or small, would like to follow, at a time when, among other "weakenings", democratic Europe, voluntarily or forced by events (such as France) is gradually abandoning its positions. We must therefore not be mistaken, it is indeed a recomposition of empires that he is witnessing today. Europe could well be one of the great victims if it continues to prove unable to defend itself other than with communiqués.

Scarcity of rare earths

This is not just a play on words. If chemists speak of "rare earths", it is because few of them are found and perhaps even more because their many properties have been discovered quite recently, particularly those that make them essential materials for the industry of the future. Chemists would therefore certainly be offended by the confusion that geopolitical language frequently maintains between "rare earths" in the strict sense, which are really rare, and much more widespread ores such as lithium, cobalt or tantalum, but just as important in their future industrial uses. There is no doubt in this respect that the prospecting of such minerals will increase considerably.

But in the meantime, countries are all on the lookout and therefore on the lookout for opportunities that will allow them to get their hands, as conveniently as possible, on important deposits that allow them both to benefit their companies or those they control, and at the same time to have a decisive geopolitical asset. The example of Chinese control of Katangan cobalt has already been mentioned. But like my recent column on the complex tangle that is being woven in Kivu in the DRC (see my column CDD 102 of February 2, 2025), the quest for tantalum is one of the stakes of this conflict. Even if it is not able to compete in terms of size and power with the Chinese, Russian or American behemoths, Rwanda is playing its card. Doubly, one could say. In terms of access to strategic minerals for one's own use or to resell them on one of the most opaque markets, but also in terms of territorial expansion for a country that is visibly cramped within its current borders... Examples abound in Africa of such behaviour, particularly with regard to the Russians and the Chinese, the former for bauxite in Guinea, the latter (the Russians or their Iranian allies) to take over from the French for Nigerien uranium.

But recent events in Ukraine offer a new illustration of this duality in land scarcity. In a recent article (see Journal.info of February 28, 2025), Bernard Attali clearly showed how the "negotiations" between Ukrainians, Russians and Americans resembled a lying poker game, with Kiev proposing an agreement on minerals mainly located in the Donbass in Washington so that it would become a matter between the Americans and Russians and thus benefit from the "forced" protection of the United States. This game could not fool many people and must even have amused the Russians, who were never masters of the game for having put Trump in tow. But this lying poker doubles as a game of billiards with several strips. On the one hand, the Ukrainian president is making a proposal to Trump that could be a quid pro quo for the aid provided by the United States, but which he knows Trump will very quickly understand is trapping him in the Russian trap. But on the other hand, Trump will never be able to repay his debt and is putting all the more pressure on it, in his arrogant and rude way, because he wants to give maximum satisfaction to Putin, not out of stupidity or ideological corruption, but because he wants to neutralize him for a while in order to be able to attack the one he considers to be his only real enemy. Xi's China. Even if it means wiping his feet on Ukraine and tearing apart a little more an old Europe that he does not believe is capable of defending itself other than by taking refuge under his wing. False complicity with Putin, if not through shared cynicism, obsession with China, contempt for a Europe that can only repay him in words, such is Trump's current trajectory, faced with a Putin who will never let himself be easily put to sleep and a Xi who, no one doubts, is already ready for any eventuality.

In short, the new Cold War continues to heat up. Admittedly, rare earths take a little longer to reach their critical temperature, but no scenario is now excluded.

Jean-Paul de GAUDEMA

R

March 2, 2025

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